What is happening in Brian Nieves’ 26th Senatorial District?

Sen. Brian Nieves

Sen. Brian Nieves

— State Sen. Brian Nieves, R-Washington, has filed for reelection, and has said the fact that someone filed against him in the primary is “laughable.”

But is he bluffing?

The state capitol is abuzz with speculation about the future of the 26th Senatorial District as a handful of lawmakers position for the seat. Rep. David Schatz, R-Franklin, filed for the seat soon after Nieves filed for reelection, and Speaker of the House Tim Jones, R-Eureka, is also considering a run.

What is clear is that Jones has said he will not challenge a sitting incumbent Republican senator. What is unclear, and lies the root of the confusion, is whether Nieves will actually seek reelection. Nieves, when asked on Wednesday about the district, said he would not be commenting on it for a while.

Candidate filing closes on March 25, meaning Nieves would likely make any decision on his electoral future prior to that date. If Nieves were to back out, Jones is actively considering a run.

“Sen. Nieves has filed and I’m not someone who believes in challenging incumbent senators from your own party,” Jones said, noting that if Nieves were to drop out, he would sit down and discuss the seat with him. “The nominee thus far is an incumbent senator for his party.”

Jones, who is hoping to top $1 million in his campaign account by the end of this quarter ahead of a possible statewide bid in 2016, would be willing to commit as much as $400,000 to the effort, Republicans close to his campaign believe. A run could be risky for Jones, however. If he were to run, there is always a possibility that he could lose and ultimately be damaged heading in to a potential 2016 race.

Schatz flexed his own campaign financial muscle over the weekend, raking in $35,600 in individual contributions over $5,000 on top of a $250,000 contribution he made to his own campaign. He ended the last financial quarter with $43,000 on hand – meaning he has more than $300,000 on hand, already.

Schatz’s move to the Senate race comes amid a legal question regarding his residency following reapportionment. He has an apartment in the 111th House District, but his family lives in the 119th House District, represented by Rep. Dave Hinson, R-St. Clair.

Hinson, who met with Nieves on the opening day of filing, had mulled running for the Senate seat, which would have cleared the way for Schatz to run for his former House district. Those with knowledge of the private negotiations believe that switch – Hinson for Senate and Schatz for House – may still be a possibility, but everything depends on what happens with Nieves.

Neither Schatz nor Hinson would have any qualms with challenging Jones, but Hinson could lack in terms of fundraising strength. Hinson has under $20,000 in his campaign committee, and raised just $80,000 during his 2012 reelection campaign. While 2012 does not prove an inability to fundraise, it does leave him at a disadvantage some five months away from primary day.

For his part, Nieves ended the last quarter of 2013 with just over $65,000 on hand, far short of Schatz’s growing coffers, and he has not received any significant checks in recent weeks. Nieves is involved with a handful of companies in Washington, Mo., and may also be looking at a job lobbying on gun issues.

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