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Wagner, armed with backing from leading Republicans, may have an easier race than she had planned. (Photo/Post-Dispatch)

— While it is still too soon to start referring to St. Louis Republican Ann Wagner as “Congresswoman-elect,” Ed Martin’s announcement Thursday that he would drop his campaign against her is the clearest sign yet of Wagner’s increasingly smooth path to victory in November.

With large campaign coffers and backing from many established Republican leaders, Wagner could breeze through the nomination in the Second Congressional District, and, potentially, with no announced Democratic challenger, through the election.

Wagner’s only Republican challenger is Dr. Randy Jotte, who announced his candidacy for the nomination earlier this week. Jotte, who has led three unsuccessful attempts for elected office (two in Missouri), faces significant challenges against Wagner, most strikingly his hope to run as an independent Republican in the same district that has elected Rep. Todd Akin, a favorite of Tea Party conservatives, for a decade.

Due to redistricting, U.S. Rep. Russ Caranahan, D.-St. Louis, has also considered a run in the second district, but Democrats are increasingly convinced he will opt for a run in the first district, against incumbent Democrat Lacy Clay. (Carnahan is expected to make his decision official after a legal challenge to the new congressional map makes its way through courts.)

Even if Carnahan decided to run in the district, Wagner would still have the advantage.

Wagner, by the way, praised Martin as a “committed conservative,” and wished him well in his new campaign for Attorney General.

“Ed is well-suited to run for Attorney General and his decision today gives
us both an opportunity to serve our state and country in different ways,” she told PoliticMo.