Graves polls four points behind McCaskill

The poll shows Graves four points behind McCaskill, 20 months before voters go to the polls in 2012. (SurveyUSA)

– In a poll commissioned by a leading Republican consulting firm, U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO) leads potential Republican candidate, U.S. Representative Sam Graves, 48 percent to 44 percent.

The SurveyUSA poll commissioned by Axiom Strateges, the Republican consulting firm behind Sam Graves, asked 632 likely voters “If there were an election for United States Senator today, and the only two names on the ballot were Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican Sam Graves, who would you vote for?” It was conducted over the weekend, January 21-24.

“Sam starts out in striking distance with room to grow as voters learn about him. Claire’s problem is that voters already know about her and her support of the President’s agenda. 48 percent may be her ceiling,” said Jeff Roe, the GOP strategist behind Axiom Strategies.

McCaskill’s four point lead is well within the margin of error, but the poll itself assumes a few major things:  (1) Rep. Graves actually decides to run. (2) The primary campaign does not hurt him. (3) He wins the primary.

Graves has not officially announced his candidacy, but floated the idea with reporters earlier this week. He is on a huge fundraising kick right now – with half a dozen fundraisers in Washington D.C., within the next two months, which may be him financially positioning to run.

So far, Sarah Steelman, former State Treasurer, has already announced her candidacy, and Ed Martin and Ann Wagner are heavily considering it.

Any Republican primary will be rough, but Steelman and Roe go back to 2008, when Roe ran her losing gubernatorial campaign that was heavily criticized for its negative nature. Ed Martin has baggage from his time serving in the Matt Blunt administration during an email scandal, and tea party conservatives have already started their assault on Steelman, calling her too moderate.

Roe told Roll Call, “Everybody’s trying to determine who is the best person to take on Claire, and outside of that messaging I think it’s important to stay on target of who’s the opponent.”

With that in mind, it is still uncertain who could make it out of that primary, unbruised, and ready to take on McCaskill, whose approval ratings are still relatively high with the left and center.

The bad news for McCaskill? Roe points out, “KC is her margin area where she was +21 against Talent; only 51-46 against Graves.”

“Uh-oh,” he tweeted, regarding McCaskill.

Axiom/SurveyUSA did not release other numbers gathered regarding Graves’ approval ratings and name recognition, or a survey that polled primary candidates.

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